Shellcoin EXPOSED

[Zvyrhol]

Shellcoin EXPOSED


It's over. If you read this now and have some Shellcoins in the bank, ignore the rest of this post, log in to the game and sell them IMMEDIATELY - there is a chance they are still worth something.
Shellcoin has been a nice idea, a shame it's inevitably doomed by simple economic laws and math devs didn't think about. The worst thing is nothing would help Shellcoin recover at this point without Turtle devs manually intervening in mechanism of their acquiring but I will talk about it later.

Let me explain. We all were thinking that Shellcoin can be obtained only via spending gold to the NPC and its price is dynamically changing based on supply/demand balance. However, this has changed. Do you know a few months ago there was a story event about Shellcoin representatives added to the game? In the past they used to sell Shellcoins in Stormwind and Orgrimmar. This story progressed and according to the current lore of Turtle WoW, authorities of Stormwind and Orgrimmar banned Shellcoin business in these cities (as if they knew what would happen to the Shellcoin). This caused Shellcoin's team migrating to Booty Bay and now they sell the Shellcoin only there.
What if I told you this short quest chain has invisibly corrupted whole Shellcoin supply/demand system? The source of this corruption was final reward of the quest...

There are 2 quests in the game: one for Horde and one for Alliance. Both of them can be completed only once and both of them lead to the same reward: the Shellcoin itself. But what's the problem? Now watch this video.



As you can see after obtaining the Shellcoing from the quest its price on the market is still the same. It's a fact as proved in the video - watch my gold balance.


Shellcoin is mathematically unprofitable


I'm not math expert though I would try apply game theory here. In theory base price of Shellcoin is always 0g - you buy the first Shellcoin on the server for free. I skip the fee part of buying/selling Shellcoin because it's relatively low, you pay always 20 copper. Then number of Shellcoins generated raises from 0 to 1 and every time you buy Shellcoin this way it increases by 1, it decreases by 1 when you sell it. Every next Shellcoin can be generated for (base price + number of Shellcoins generated * 0.002g).
For example: the server has generated 10 Shellcoins. The price of the next Shellcoin is 0g + 10 * 0.002g = 0.02g.
This system makes sense because if all Shellcoin owners sell all of their Shellcoins, the price will go back to 0g - it's zero-sum game. There is only 1 type of player in this game: Shellcoin trader. The goal of the game is to earn gold by buying Shellcoin when it's low and selling it when it's high. These were all rules of the first Shellcoin system.

What you could see in video proof is that you get actual Shellcoin via the quest in the game but the variable called number of Shellcoins generated didn't increase because the price of Shellcoin remains the same.
Quest existence actually changes this system a lot. Now there are 2 types of players in this game: previously known Shellcoin trader and quest enjoyer - a person who got their Shellcoin via the quest. Important thing is that it's still zero-sum game. Overall gold spent on Shellcoins equals to gold gained by selling Shellcoins.
Now let's delve into quest enjoyer. It's the type of player that got 1 Shellcoin out of the system. Let's assume every quest enjoyer immediately sells their Shellcoin after they complete the quest chain. That means quest enjoyer type of player ALWAYS wins this game - they will always collect the gold from the system because Shellcoin always has positive price.

Because of that and because it's a zero-sum game and there are 2 types of players it's mathematically proved that Shellcoin trader - must lose in general. Quest enjoyer can sell their Shellcoin which has the following results: they get gold, the variable number of Shellcoins generated in the system decreases by 1. Note that this variable doesn't reflect actual number of Shellcoins in the game.

In other words and from another point of view our current Shellcoin system is flooded with A LOT of Shellcoins generated via the quest that are no gold-backed. If now suddenly all Shellcoin traders decide to sell their Shellcoins, it will become clear that some Shellcoins would cost nothing. The first who sell them will get gold before the price drops to 0g. I don't have data about current state of Shellcoin system but I try to estimate. I assume 10 characters (you can do this quest on alts) complete this quest chain a day. I haven't found when exactly this quest became available but I estimate it was added half a year ago. 180 * 10 = 1 800 Shellcoins generated by the quest. At the moment I'm writing this post the Shellcoin costs about 30g. That means there are 15 000 Shellcoins officially generated. So according to my estimations 10.71% of current Shellcoins are worth nothing. The quest became a ticking a bomb, the more time passes, the more and more the Shellcoin deteriorates.


How to fix Shellcoin?

The problem is it's impolite to change the rules in the middle of the game, especially the game that some people (or even guilds) invested tons of gold. BTW do you remember how people cried when Goblin Brainwashing Device was changed? But the Shellcoin will be doomed if nothing changes. There are a few directions devs can choose.
1. Remove Shellcoin as a quest reward. The corruption of Shellcoin will stop though the current damage won't be healed. There will always be 1800 Shellcoins in the system that are worth nothing.
2. Fix the quest so when you complete it, you get a Shellcoin but it counts to the system. So when you complete the quest, the Shellcoin's price will automatically increase. It has one major problem: if Shellcoin becomes very popular and for example costs 1000g, then one single quest will generate 1000g raw gold.
3. End Shellcoin's life and add new currency that works the same way as first Shellcoin before it was moved to Booty Bay. Let the Shellcoin die, it's just a matter of time until it's consumed by corruption. When it drops to 0g introduce new currency - I propose the name "Moocoin". Ideally it should be based on first Shellcoin system. I'm great fan of this idea because it allows you to continue the legacy of the first Shellcoin. In spite of all Shellcoin isn't only a currency but it has some place in lore of Turtle WoW - there could be some interesting quests describing why Shellcoin was to fall or quest about K'ron Tusk's future. If you don't follow Turtle WoW's lore, K'ron Tusk is the founder of the Shellcoin.

Some people invest their gold in Shellcoin and quit the game. They permanently increase its price. Then why do you think Shellcoin's price will fall to the ground?

To answer this question, let's go back to the first Shellcoin system and game theory when there was only 1 type of player: Shellcoin trader. In that system if someone invested their gold in Shellcoin and then permanently quit Turtle WoW (let's call them "Dead player"), we could assume that that person lost this game - in general they sacrificed their gold so the Shellcoin could cost more. And because they were considered "Dead players" they couldn't sell their Shellcoins anymore. "Dead players" actually pumped the whole Shellcoin system, thanks to them the Shellcoin price constantly rose over months.
However, in current Shellcoin system the gold leaks from it and it's done by quest enjoyers. The real question is: can "Dead players" gold surpass quest enjoyers'' leak? I can't prove it because unfortunately, the page that allowed everyone to see Shellcoin's price is not working anymore. Though from my experience the price of Shellcoin has been declining since the system was changed. I think the Shellcoin costs less now than a day before exploitive quests were added. I would be grateful if someone presents data in the comments.

Some information about the quests

For Alliance: https://database.turtle-wow.org/?quest=39989 and for Horde: https://database.turtle-wow.org/?quest=39984.
Both of these quests require level 30. I have talked with random rich guy in Orgrimmar who claims that he used to create lv 1 alts just to complete the quest back when it didn't have level requirement, then he sold the Shellcoins for 10g each. Both quests require you to pay some gold before you get a Shellcoin. I have done it as Horde character and I paid only 10g. You might think that if quest requires you to spend more gold than the Shellcoin is worth, people won't do it. But the truth is in general quest enjoyer won't care what the price of quest is. Some of them want to complete all quests in the game, others are annoyed when their quest addon shows them uncompleted quest on the map. And finally let's be honest, most of players are unconscious what the final reward could be, they just do the quest because of curiosity.

Why have you written a post about this instead of contacting Turtle WoW team directly?

I have a few reasons.
1. I assume that facing the consequences of your mistake is the best way to learn not to make it ever again. Let the team listen to complaints of the community when Shellcoin significantly lose its value. Let them have a lesson to learn.
2. I want to make Turtle WoW community more conscious about how current Shellcoin system really works and why average Shellcoin trader must lose. The belief that it will cost more in the future is just stupid. What a pity that many guilds still invest huge amounts of gold in a game that turns out to be gambling. I remind you: I've just mathematically proved that Shellcoin trader loses gold on average.
3. I like watching someone choke on their pride. You probably heard that GMs and devs have openly advertised Shellcoin in every possible way. Even GM Saelas recently have said in World chat: "Shellcoin is the best choice". Haha. I want to see their faces now.
4. As I said earlier, I don't like when someone is changing the rules in the middle of the game. Devs would probably do that and people wouldn't even notice.
5. I like to see the world burn. Contacting devs wouldn't have the same effect as this post. Imagine what will happen within a few hours after I post this? Why does everyone want to sell all Shellcoins now?

At least I'm honest.

[Fornow]

Well yeah, it's a scam. That's the whole point. It's modeled on real-world crypto currencies in case that was lost on you.

[Geojak]

Thank you for this post. I realised the same problem of the quest eventually mathematicslly will ruin the previous direct link between shell coin number in exiszance and it's value. That's when I sold all my coins half a year ago. Only the quest enjoyed can win and the dumb trader is financing it.

I give you some rough outline about shellcoin price history in the last 11 motnsh.

The shellcoin value rose all the way from 15g to 30g in a matter of two weeks around a year ago, then crashed down in half a day to 20g. This happened shortly before the new patch dropped that introduced hyjal.

For around 8 months the value was mostly unchanging in between 22-24g, new shellcoin quest were introduced sometime around new year I believe.

Sometine during the hack the shellcoin website went down. Next time I checked ingame around a month ago, the value was 33g to my suprise. It has been steadily falling since then. Whoever pushed the value up must be loosing tons of gold to quest enjoyers, proofing the point.

[Sinrek]

That's not a problem.

It's a meme and it's working as intended.

[Satirical]

Way to miss the joke about it being based off the crypto craze a few years ago. Of course its a money loss.

[Xudo]

I believe one of the reasons why shellcoin exist is to remove gold from economy.
People buy it, expecting that later they will earn more money by selling it.
Effectively this removes gold from economy if people keep buying this currency.
If people stop buying it, then this function of shellcoin will not work.

If it won't remove gold from economy, then prices will inflate over time (faster than they already are). Devs should increase shellcoin price on quest turn-in. Otherwise, people won't buy this currency.

[Eversongwoods]

FUD!!!! you mad bro because you didn't get in early?

[Zulnam]

First lore-friendly rug pull?

[Eversongwoods]

Price of shellcoin is supposed to go up when a shellcoin is given for a quest so this is a bug because the price is fixed based on circulation. When the price is fixed it will pump to the moon, better buy in now.

[Geojak]

Did anyone make a bug report on the tracker? Or would it just be closed as "not a bug"...

[Zvyrhol]

Price of shellcoin is supposed to go up when a shellcoin is given for a quest so this is a bug because the price is fixed based on circulation. When the price is fixed it will pump to the moon, better buy in now.

Why do you assume it's going to be fixed this way? Do you think devs want the quest to generate Shellcoin that counts to the system (read it: generates raw gold equal to current Shellcoin price)? Personally, I don't think so.

[Eversongwoods]

Torta is a shellcoin enthusiast so it will be dealt with in a profitable manner for holders.

[Zvyrhol]

Torta is a shellcoin enthusiast so it will be dealt with in a profitable manner for holders.

SheNNcoin xD

[Amarion]

Get your FUDing butt out of here. SHELLCOIN TO THE MOON!

You do realize the Shellcoin is a parody of crypto currencies? It's a literal shitpost in form of a game mechanic :D

[Zvyrhol]

Shellcoin is ticking bomb.

[Eversongwoods]

Shellcoin is a hedge against inflation so its never too late to buy in. 100G by 2026

[Weskil]

I've got a bag full of counterfeit shellcoin ready to dump on the market the moment it starts to take off.
I mean, uh, moo?

[Tumicate]

When are we going to have another hipe? Devs or community need to hipe it from time to time, otherwise it will just die.

[Atreidon]

When are we going to have another hipe? Devs or community need to hipe it from time to time, otherwise it will just die.

I swear there is a wonderful opportunity to critique crypto currencies and the real life monetary systems with no guaranteed backing of a coins value here...

[Tumicate]

yeah... devs could make a system with daily random buy and sell orders to make the coin fluctuate randomly so players can speculate future prices, or... they could turn it into (another) poorly thought out social criticism.

[Eversongwoods]

Shellcoin is just fine the way it is, over 24g at the moment. Going to the moon!

[Zvyrhol]

Hardcore players haven't been able to complete Shellcoin quest chain since the last update. It's good change but the core problem of Shellcoin remains - the quest is still in the game.

I estimate that the Shellcoin would cost 100g now if there was no outside intervention of Shellcoin supply via these quests.