Thaddius loot table

[Kord2998]

This is silly I know (RNG is weird sometimes, I get it), but has anyone else noticed the Thaddius loot table for T3 head tokens being unbalanced? According to the database, each token has a 33% chance to drop twice per kill. My guild has been killing Thaddius every week since late January (15 kills according to our raid log history) and we haven't seen the Pally, Hunter, Shaman, Druid token drop yet. Every week it's 2 of the other ones.

I get RNG is weird sometimes, but a 33% chance for something to drop 30 times (15 kills x 2 drops a week) has such a strong possibility to happen that it's basically statistically impossible for it not to. If you do the actual math, the odds of it dropping in 30 chances is 0.9999999999999997465%.

Anyway, just wondered if anyone else has experienced this or if a GM is just messing with us

[Calli]

You cannot say that 0.999 % that is an average, indepentent of drop chance, which is always 33%
Imagine how many times it drops those tokens weekly, you also cannot make valid statistics based on 30 attempt out of overall weekly... let's say 2-3 hundreds?

[Zulnam]

the dark side of RNG.

I remember in Vanilla, the MT passed on the T2 helm for another warrior saying it's fine he'll get the next one.

Took almost 6 months for it to drop again.

[Kord2998]

You cannot say that 0.999 % that is an average, indepentent of drop chance, which is always 33%
Imagine how many times it drops those tokens weekly, you also cannot make valid statistics based on 30 attempt out of overall weekly... let's say 2-3 hundreds?

That percentage is just the math on the odds of the 33% chance to drop token dropping at least once given 30 chances. It's just basic statistics...

[Calli]

You cannot say that 0.999 % that is an average, indepentent of drop chance, which is always 33%
Imagine how many times it drops those tokens weekly, you also cannot make valid statistics based on 30 attempt out of overall weekly... let's say 2-3 hundreds?

That percentage is just the math on the odds of the 33% chance to drop token dropping at least once given 30 chances. It's just basic statistics...

It does not matter how many times, the probability of dropping the item is 33% per drop. As my guildmate usually says ' Have faith it will drop next time'